An Alternative Theory of Startups

Arrow's Theorem is a Lie

Changes in Class Well-Being Over the Past Century (written by Michael Vassar and edited by me)

Changing the frame of AI futurism (co-authored with Anna Salamon, Steve Rayhawk, Michael Anissimov and Rolf Nelson)

Failure and Success in AGI Projects

Global Risks: A Quantitative Analysis

How Gold and Glory Lead the Roman Republic to Greatness

Modeling Future Telephone Power Usage (co-authored with Eric DuBois)

Optimization of Rockets with Variable Exhaust Velocity

Reducing long-term catastrophic AI risk (co-authored with Michael Blume, Zack Davis, Steven Kaas, Rolf Nelson, Corey Newsome, Steve Rayhawk, Anna Salamon, Carl Shulman, and Eliezer Yudkowsky)

Sales in Startups

Singularity FAQ (co-authored with Kaj Sotala)

The Destruction of the Creative Class

The Real Story Behind Fusion Energy

Top 5 Technology Panics of 2009

A Unified Theory of Success